Nearly a Million Jobs Are About to Vanish From The Books

Job growth figures are about to be massively revised downward—again.

Forecasters expect the Bureau of Labor Statistics to revise its job growth estimates downward for April 2024 through March 2025 next Tuesday as part of a routine annual benchmark process. Economists expect the revisions to reflect anywhere from 475,000 to 900,000 fewer jobs than the 1.76 million initially estimated.

The bureau routinely revises its labor market statistics to include data such as employer surveys or unemployment insurance claims that aren’t available when monthly reports are prepared. Those statistical adjustments usually come and go without fanfare, but that wasn’t the case last month.

Large downward revisions to job growth figures from May and June prompted President Donald Trump to fire the head of the BLS, saying the revisions were “rigged.” This move alarmed experts concerned about political interference with the bureau’s production of economic statistics.

Economists and Federal Reserve officials are monitoring the labor market data for clues about how the jobs are faring under Trump’s tariffs. Higher tariffs have shaken the economic outlook, causing some businesses to be hesitant to hire. Slower hiring would spur the Federal Reserve to cut its influential interest rate to keep unemployment low.

How Does the Fed Think About Revisions?

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he expects revised BLS data to show the economy actually lost jobs in May, June, and July this year. At last month’s Fed policy meeting, Waller was one of two members who voted to cut the central bank’s key interest rate.

However, downward revisions may not have much of an impact on the Fed’s next interest rate decision. Next week’s revision is a preliminary figure and won’t be finalized in February. Next week’s revision will also cover a period before Trump’s tariffs started upending the economy, so it won’t say anything about how tariffs have affected the job market.

“The announcement looks set to paint a more fragile picture of recent hiring given the further loss of momentum in job growth in the months following the benchmark period,” economists at Wells Fargo led by Sarah House, wrote in a commentary.