futures have mounted an impressive recovery from last week’s capitulation low of $3362.8, a move that originated within the Buy 2 Weekly zone ($3328) and coincided with the completion of a 30-day cycle trough. The subsequent surge, marked by a strong mean-reversion rally, propelled price through the VC PMI Weekly pivot ($3388) and confirmed bullish momentum once daily pivots aligned with weekly levels.
Currently, the market trades at $3467.8, pressing against a confluence of resistance: the Sell 2 Daily ($3468) and the Sell 2 Weekly ($3468). This convergence forms a critical decision point, where probability favors short-term mean reversion, but where breakout potential remains high if price can close decisively above this zone.
VC PMI Levels
Daily Levels:
- Sell 2: $3468
- Sell 1: $3461
- Pivot: $3446
- Buy 1: $3430
- Buy 2: $3410
Weekly Levels:
- Sell 2: $3468
- Sell 1: $3444
- Pivot: $3388
- Buy 2: $3328
The alignment of daily and weekly resistance suggests that $3468 is the most important price magnet in this cycle window. Profit-taking is justified at these levels, while breakout traders will watch for follow-through above $3470 to confirm sustained momentum.
Cycle Analysis
- 30-Day Cycle: The August 28 peak marks a projected cycle crest, with the prior low aligning on July 29. This suggests the current advance may be culminating into a corrective phase, unless extended by fresh momentum above $3468.
- 360-Day Cycle: The long-term bullish cycle that began from September 2024 lows projects continued strength into Q4 2025, reinforcing that any corrective pullback here may offer long-term accumulation opportunities.
The Square of 9 geometry also highlights $3468 as a harmonic resistance tied to the prior $3362 low, strengthening its importance as a pivot in time and price.
Trading Directive
- Bullish Bias: A confirmed breakout above $3468 opens room to Fibonacci extensions beyond $3500, with momentum favoring trend continuation.
- Bearish Bias: Failure to sustain above this zone invites a retracement toward $3446–$3430, with deeper support anchored near the weekly pivot of $3388.
Conclusion
Gold is at a cycle-defined inflection point. Traders should respect $3468 as the fulcrum: breakout validates higher trend targets, while rejection implies a controlled reversion back toward pivots. Strategic traders may scale profits here while positioning for the next leg, aligned with the 30-day and 360-day cycles.
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TRADING DERIVATIVES, FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS AND PRECIOUS METALS INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
