Nvidia Stock May See Its Biggest Post-Earnings Move in a Year This Week

Artificial intelligence bellwether Nvidia (NVDA) is slated to report quarterly results after markets close on Wednesday, and traders are prepared for a big stock move.

Nvidia stock is expected to move approximately 6.5% in either direction by the end of the week, according to options pricing data. That big of a move from last week’s close would put shares at either $189.65, an all-time high that translates to a $4.63 trillion market capitalization, or $166.33, its lowest price since mid-July. 

Nvidia has reported earnings 10 times since the release of ChatGPT in late 2022 sparked the AI craze that’s made it the world’s most valuable company. The stock posted double-digit gains in the days after four of those reports, most recently in May 2024. 

But Nvidia’s earnings have struggled recently to clear the exceptionally high bar set by Wall Street. In the past four quarters, Nvidia stock has moved an average of 3.2% between reporting earnings and the end of the week. On only one of those occasions—the most recent report in May—did Nvidia finish the week above where it was before reporting earnings. 

Investors will be scrutinizing Nvidia’s report Wednesday for confirmation that AI demand remains strong. Hyperscalers Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), and Amazon (AMZN) all recently stood by plans to spend hundreds of billions of dollars this year on data center infrastructure and other capital goods, citing robust demand for AI and cloud computing. Nvidia, with an estimated 80% to 90% share of the AI chip market, should be the biggest beneficiary of that spending.

Wall Street will also be hoping for updates on sales to China. Nvidia warned in May that the Trump administration’s decision to tighten Biden-era export controls could cost it up to $8 billion in lost revenue in the second quarter. Earlier this month, Nvidia and competitor Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) struck a deal with the Trump administration that allows them to resume sales to China in exchange for a 15% cut. That deal came too late to have any impact on Wednesday’s results, but it should be factored into Nvidia’s guidance. 

Analysts are overwhelmingly bullish on Nvidia. Of the 14 analysts tracked by Visible Alpha with current ratings on Nvidia’s stock, 13 rate it a “Buy” and one gives it a neutral “Hold” rating. The average price target of $203.38 is about 13% above Nvidia’s share price in intraday trading on Monday.